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News
Syndicates in WC Public Money / High Limit Heaven
2014-06-12
Professional Syndicates are salivating ahead of tonight’s World Cup and in particular the opening match where Brazil take on Croatia. The amount of uninformed public money invested globally on the popular big name favorites is vast. Tonight’s game is an excellent example of this where one way soft public investment is certainly for Brazil. This heavy investment forces the price of Croatia to an artificially inflated point, well above true value. In addition to an abundance of public money the other key factor working in favor of global betting syndicates is high limits. (The +1.50 Ball at 2.02 has current limits of 60,000 at most Asia books). The question now is at what point will the syndicates take action? If any action is to be seen at all.
There are two main scenarios-
1) Professional Syndicates make the dog a bet – Syndicates will wait for the public money to build up on the popular favorite side and also wait until final team news is made available to the market. At this point limits at most Asian books will be increased significantly. It is at this point the key global betting syndicates will unleash a flurry of bets on the value side generated by the heavy weight of investment on the public’s popular favorite. If limits are high enough prior to final team news, Syndicates will also invest what is available to them.
2) Professional Syndicates make the favorite a bet – If this is the case it is much more difficult for Syndicates to invest on their desired selection. This is because if they make a favorite a bet they will be forced to bet early when the limits are low. If they don’t this value price will quickly be consumed by the weight of public money, and when limits are increased close to match kick off no value will remain.
In summary be prepared for some wild moves late in betting, in the games featuring the popular favorites, betting syndicates will attack towards the close of betting when limits are high across Asian books. Conversely when Syndicates want to back the favorite they will be forced to do so early (at lower limits) before the weight of public money washes away the perceived value price.
Overall the world cup betting conditions suit the global betting syndicates, high limits/liquidity and vast soft public money investment being the key factors in their favor.