World Cup Penalty Shoot Out Data

2014-05-13

Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article.

This paper is an essential starting place for an analysis for the impact of penalty shoot-outs in competitive international football as it reports some empirical findings on events in penalty shoot-outs in the World Cup (WC), European Championships (EC) and the Copa America (CA). The results are fascinating; here is a glimpse. The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition:

• First kick 86.6%
• Second kick 81.7%
• Third kick 79.3%
• Fourth kick 72.5%
• Fifth kick 80%
• Sudden death kicks 64.3%

These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

The researchers looked at the percentage success rate of players of different positions. Attackers successfully convert 83.1% of their penalties, midfield players convert 79.6% and defenders convert 73.6%.

The length of time the players have been on the pitch is also important. If they have played 30 minutes of less, their success rate is 86.7%, although, of course, this might include the occasional substitution to put a good penalty taker on the pitch. Players who have played between 31 and 90 minutes successfully convert 81.9% of penalties, and players who play longer than 91 minutes, convert 80% of their chances.

Age also seems important with younger players doing better. Players aged 22 or younger successfully convert 85.2% of attempts. Those aged between 23 and 28 convert 77.6%, and those aged over 29 years convert 78.1%.

The researchers conclude their paper by stating that their results demonstrate that the results of the penalty shoot-outs are not a lottery. Their results demonstrate that there are marked and logical patterns that repeat themselves time and again. The authors adopt a psychological stance on their results and they suggest that stress and anxiety may be important explanatory factors.

Major Nation Records

We have defined a 'major nation' as nations that have played in a World Cup final. We have excluded Czechoslovakia, who have only competed in two penalty shootouts both of which they won, and Hungary, who have not appeared in a penalty shootout.